Projektleitung: Thomas Url
Aktualisierung des langfristigen Prognosemodells A-LMM (A Long-run Macroeconomic Model of the Austrian Economy (A-LMM) - New Results (2014))
Abgeschlossene Forschungsprojekte
Auftraggeber: Bundesministerium für Arbeit, Soziales und Konsumentenschutz
Studie von: Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung
Abgeschlossen: 2014
Forschungsbereich:Makroökonomie und öffentliche Finanzen – Arbeitsmarktökonomie, Einkommen und soziale Sicherheit
Sprache:Deutsch

A Long-run Macroeconomic Model of the Austrian Economy (A-LMM) - New Results (2014)
We use the Austrian Long-run Macroeconomic Model (A-LMM) for a long-term projection of the Austrian economy until 2070. Our baseline scenario is the input for micro-simulation models of the Austrian pension insurance system. A-LMM is a neoclassical growth model replicating stylised facts about growing market economies. The current model update incorporates recent information from labour market and national accounts data. Compared to the previous report we now project slightly higher labour market participation rates and – due to the lower starting value in 2013 – a lower level of real output.

Verwandte Einträge

Studien, Juni 2014, 48 Seiten
Auftraggeber: Bundesministerium für Arbeit, Soziales und Konsumentenschutz
Studie von: Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung – Institut für Höhere Studien
Online seit: 13.06.2014 0:00
 
We use the Austrian Long-run Macroeconomic Model (A-LMM) for a long-term projection of the Austrian economy until 2070. Our baseline scenario is the input for micro-simulation models of the Austrian pension insurance system. A-LMM is a neoclassical growth model replicating stylised facts about growing market economies. The current model update incorporates recent information from labour market and national accounts data. Compared to the previous report we now project slightly higher labour market participation rates and – due to the lower starting value in 2013 – a lower level of real output.
Studien, Juni 2013, 56 Seiten
Auftraggeber: Bundesministerium für Arbeit, Soziales und Konsumentenschutz
Studie von: Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung – Institut für Höhere Studien
Online seit: 17.06.2013 0:00
 
In this short report we present simulations based on an updated version of A-LMM, the Austrian Long-run Macroeconomic Model. In addition to a baseline scenario based on the main population projection of Statistics Austria, we simulate the effects of low and high migration, high life expectancy rates, and high or low growth of labour productivity on the macroeconomic development in Austria till 2070. We also compare the new results with results from the previous update in 2010.