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The latest forecasts from the 93rd Euroconstruct analysis confirm the ongoing recovery in European construction, even if the growth forecast for 2022 had to be lowered. Among the three construction sectors, growth is distributed evenly, with rates just above 2 percent in real terms. Residential construction mainly benefits from increased activities in the renovation sector, supported by public subsidy programmes. The growth in non-residential construction can be seen more like a rebound effect from the 2020 crisis. Civil engineering is supported by public subsidy programmes that serve to stimulate the economy. However, the current increases in construction costs and economic uncertainties due to the war in Ukraine are dampening the outlook to 2024. Detailed results and forecasts were presented to a professional audience at the 93rd Euroconstruct Conference in Warsaw (Poland) from 9 to 10 June 2022. The Euroconstruct Summary Report provides a macroeconomic analysis and an overview of the European construction industry by sectors (housing, non-residential construction, and civil engineering; split into new and renovation, respectively) up to 2024. With contributions by Yngve Abrahamsen, Ludwig Dorffmeister, Thomas Endhoven, Adam Sochacki and Mariusz Sochacki.
 
The spring or summer update of the European construction market forecasts – presented at the 93rd Euroconstruct conference organised by PAB-PCR&F, in Warsaw from 9 to 10 June 2022 – confirmed an ongoing recovery of the European construction markets. The growth forecast for 2022 had to be lowered due to increasing multiple risks (like supply bottlenecks, increasing construction costs and inflation in general). Despite the challenging business environment, none of the Euroconstruct member countries expects a decline in construction volume. Euroconstruct forecasts an average real growth in output of 2.3 percent compared to the previous year. Overall, construction volume is forecasted to reach 1,896 billion € in the Euroconstruct area in 2022. The Euroconstruct Country Report provides detailed information about the construction market trends and its fundamentals in each of the 19 Euroconstruct member countries until 2024. The forecasts and analyses are presented at the country level and are based on a comparable harmonised dataset for the major construction sectors and indicators. The macroeconomic framework conditions are included additionally. With contributions by Barbour Abi, Anne-Sophie Alsif, Anna Brinkhagen, Anders Bjerre, Mohammed Chaudhri, Ludwig Dorffmeister, Antonio Coimbra, Thomas Endhoven, Josep Ramon Fontana, David Frič, János Gáspár, Johan Grip, Roch-Eloi Grivet, Paul Groot, Annette Hughes, Michael Klien, Radovan Kostelník, Nathalie Kouassi, Vladimir Lenko, Jean-Pierre Liebaert, Patric Lindqvist, Nejra Macic, Simon Mahoney, Arend Olthoff, Pascal Marlier, Antonio Mura, Markku Riihimäki, Stefanie Siegrist, Mariusz Sochacki, Antonella Stemperini, Mercedes Tascedda and Michael Weingärtler.
 
The recent Euroconstruct forecasts indicate a noticeable weakening of construction activity from 2022 onwards for Austria and Europe. Although the order situation in Austria remains strong, the assessment has changed significantly since the beginning of the year. While the Austrian construction industry survived the immediate COVID-19 crisis relatively unscathed, the sector has been struggling with ongoing construction cost problems since the exceptionally rapid recovery in 2021. The construction industry has been particularly affected by price increases in essential commodities such as steel and oil. Economic uncertainty is also increasing, further dampening the construction outlook until 2024.
Wirtschaftliche Erholung verliert an Schwung. Prognose für 2022 und 2023 (Adverse Supply Shocks Hit Buoyant Economy. Economic Outlook for 2022 and 2023)
WIFO-Konjunkturprognose, 2022, (2), 36 Seiten
Online seit: 30.06.2022 10:00
 
Die wirtschaftlichen Aussichten haben sich seit der letzten WIFO-Prognose weltweit eingetrübt. Dies hat auch Folgen für die erwartete Erholung in Österreich. Vorlaufindikatoren deuten auf eine Konjunkturabschwächung hin, die 2022 vorwiegend die Industrie betrifft. Dagegen wird der Tourismus 2022 überproportional zum Wirtschaftswachstum beitragen. Nach +4,8% im Vorjahr erwartet das WIFO für 2022 und 2023 ein reales BIP-Wachstum von 4,3% bzw. 1,6%.
Konjunktur verliert weiter an Dynamik. Ergebnisse des WIFO-Konjunkturtests vom Juni 2022 (Economy Continues to Lose Momentum. Results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest (Business Cycle Survey) of June 2022)
WIFO-Konjunkturtest, 2022, (6), 13 Seiten
Auftraggeber: Europäische Kommission
Online seit: 29.06.2022 14:00
Die Ergebnisse des WIFO-Konjunkturtests zeigen im Juni einen leichten Rückgang der Konjunkturdynamik. Der WIFO-Konjunkturklimaindex notierte mit 16,8 Punkten (saisonbereinigt) 2,6 Punkte unter dem Wert des Vormonats (19,4 Punkte). Die Ergebnisse zeigen eine Abschwächung bei den Lageeinschätzungen, die aber weiterhin ein gutes Konjunkturumfeld zeichnen. Infolge der hohen unternehmerischen Unsicherheit und der steigenden Inputpreise verloren aber die Konjunkturerwartungen weiter an Dynamik. Die Mehrheit der Unternehmen rechnet weiterhin damit, Preiserhöhungen in den kommenden Monaten vornehmen zu müssen.
Die Wirtschaft in den Bundesländern, Juni 2022, 81 Seiten
Online seit: 22.06.2022 0:00
 
Die regionalen konjunkturellen Verläufe waren im IV. Quartal 2021 weiterhin von starken Aufholprozessen aufgrund der wirtschaftlichen Verwerfungen im Vorjahr geprägt. Die allgemein positive konjunkturelle Entwicklung zeigt sich auch auf den regionalen Arbeitsmärkten, was sich in steigenden Beschäftigungszahlen sowie sinkender Arbeitslosigkeit widerspiegelt.
In a randomised controlled trial in Austria, lower caseloads in public employment offices led to more meetings of the unemployed with their caseworkers, more job offers, more program assignments, and more sanctions for noncompliance with job search requirements. More intensive counselling led to shorter unemployment episodes due to faster job entry, but also to more exits from the labour force in the two years following treatment. We find effects for different subgroups of unemployed. We find no effects on wages. A cost-benefit analysis suggests that lower caseloads not only shorten the duration of unemployment but are also cost-effective.
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