We assess the effectiveness of the financial sector stabilisation measures taken by the Austrian authorities in the wake of
the global financial crisis. Employing an event study methodology, we evaluate domestic and cross-border effects involving
Central, Eastern and South-eastern European economies. We identify recapitalisations and public guarantees as the most effective
sovereign interventions. Both mitigate financial market stress at home and abroad. However, a risk-shifting effect emerges
at the sovereign's expense which undermines their effectiveness relative to monetary policy interventions. Moreover, in complement
to the actual implementation, the mere announcement of interventions already mitigates financial market stress, underscoring
the extent of policy credibility.
Mitte 2022 wird in Österreich im Rahmen der "ökosozialen Steuerreform" mit der Bepreisung von CO2 ein neues Werkzeug im Mix
der klimapolitischen Instrumente verfügbar. Österreich folgt mit dieser Bepreisung von Treibhausgasen einer sowohl in Europa
als auch global immer stärker werdenden Tendenz. Dieses Instrument soll Anreize für die Restrukturierung des Wirtschafts-
und Lebensstils setzen, die nicht nur den Klimawandel eindämmen hilft, sondern auch Wohlstand, Resilienz und Wettbewerbsfähigkeit
This article reports on the most recent update of Austria's effective exchange rate indices, which serve to aggregate data
on bilateral exchange rates and relative prices or costs into indicators of Austria's short- to medium-term international
competitive position. As before, the weighting scheme builds on bilateral trade data for Austria's 56 most important trading
partners and a three-year averaging period, which we were able to move forward to the period 2013-2015. Upon recalculation
of existing observations from January 2013 onward, we find confirmation for the medium-term worsening of Austria's competitive
position, but in a less pronounced form than suggested by the previous weighting scheme. On the tail end of the curve, the
COVID-19 crisis in general and short-time work subsidies in particular have distorted several indicators in 2020 and 2021.
With regard to the geographical focus of Austria's international trade relations, we observe a shift away from the large EU
economies towards the USA and China, plus a weaker shift from Northeastern Europe towards Eastern Europe and Turkey. Given
the economic relevance of tourism for Austria, we newly created a real effective exchange rate for the tourism industry. In
this segment of the economy, we see a more pronounced appreciation than in the service sector as a whole from 2015 onward,
which would normally imply a decline in tourism services output. That Austria's tourism industry clearly continued to thrive
indicates that the appreciation coincided with an upward shift of prices and supply toward higher quality segments.
Timo Wollmershäuser, Przemyslaw Brandt, Stefan Ederer, Friederike Fourné, Max Lay, Robert Lehmann, Sebastian Link, Sascha Möhrle, Radek Šauer, Stefan Schiman, Klaus Wohlrabe, Lara Zarges
With around 90 percent of the average retirement income received from public pension entitlements, the Austrian pension system
is very reliant on the first pillar. Occupational pensions are primarily offered through pension funds and insurance companies.
Direct commitments are an alternative vehicle, but their usage stagnates. The option for defined contribution plans with favourable
tax treatment offered either by pension funds or insurance companies boosted the prevalence of occupational pensions in Austria.
While occupational pensions have become more popular over time, low interest rates and a high liquidity preference dampened
demand for individual life insurance contracts. Over the years 2002 through 2020, the performance of pension funds in real
net terms has been positive, with an annualised average return of 1.4 percent before tax. The life insurance industry followed
a distinctly more conservative investment policy and achieved an average annual net real return before tax of 2.1 percent.
We propose a modelling approach based on a set of small-scale factor models linked together in a cluster with linkages derived
from Granger causality tests. GDP forecasts are produced using a disaggregated approach across production, expenditure and
income accounts. The method combines the advantages of large structural macroeconomic models and small factor models, making
our cluster of dynamic factor models (CDFM) useful for large-scale model-consistent forecasting. The CDFM has a simple structure,
and its forecasts outperform those of a variety of competing models and professional forecasters. In addition, the CDFM allows
forecasters to use their own judgment to produce conditional forecasts.
Stefan Ederer, Predrag Ćetković, Stefan Humer, Stefan Jestl, Emanuel List
This paper builds Distributional National Accounts (DINA) using household survey data. We develop a transparent and reproducible
methodology that uses only publicly available sources, provides highly comparable results well suited for policy analyses,
and can be applied when administrative tax data are not available for research. We apply this methodology to build synthetic
micro-datafiles for European countries that cover the entire distribution, include all income components separately, are consistent
with national accounts, and preserve the detailed socioeconomic information available in the surveys. We discuss the methodological
steps and their impact on the income distribution. In particular, we highlight the effects of imputations and the adjustment
of variables to national accounts' totals. Furthermore, we compare the different income concepts of the DINA and the EG-DNA
approach in a consistent way. Overall, aligning household incomes with national accounts' totals and imputing incomes from
other sectors increases inequality in most countries, which underlines the importance of reconciling income distributions
with macroeconomic aggregates.
Studie von: Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung – Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliches Rechenzentrum
We present an uncertainty measure that is based on a business survey in which uncertainty is captured directly by a qualitative
question on subjective uncertainty regarding expectations. Uncertainty perceptions display persistence at the firm level and
changes are associated with past business assessments and expectations. While our uncertainty measure correlates with commonly
used alternatives, it is superior in forecasting and suggests a larger role of uncertainty shocks for aggregate fluctuations.
Its informational content is highest when considering smaller firms or firms with a low growth rate. Our results confirm the
feasibility of constructing uncertainty measures from business survey questions that elicit information on uncertainty of