Thematic Platform "European Integration and Global Governance"

Publications on the topic "European Integration and Global Governance"

EU governance, budget and fiscal policy (33 hits)

Kerstin Bernoth (DIW Berlin), Sara Dietz (LMU Munich), Rosa Lastra (Queen Mary University of London, Centre for Commercial Law Studies), Atanas Pekanov (WIFO)
Studies, European Parliament, Luxembourg, February 2024, 33 pages, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/cmsdata/280743/DIW February 2024_final.pdf
Commissioned by: European Parliament
Study by: Austrian Institute of Economic Research – Hertie School gGmbH – Queen Mary University of London – German Institute for Economic Research
Online since: 13.03.2024 0:00
This paper considers the past, present, and future of the ECB monetary policy. Looking backwards, the ECB has succeeded in navigating through several crises. Looking forward, the paper examines some of the main challenges confronting the ECB in the years ahead with climate change, digitalisation, inequality, sovereign indebtedness, and the completion of Banking Union complicating the pursuit of the price stability primary objective.
WIFO Working Papers, 2023, (668), 41 pages
Online since: 20.12.2023 0:00
Wealth inequality and concentration, together with the search for options to secure long-term sufficiency of tax systems in face of ageing societies, have recently moved the taxation of inheritances into the spotlight. The question if and to what extent behavioral responses by bequeathers may undermine the revenue potential of inheritance taxes is central for policy design. This survey of the empirical literature finds an overall moderate impact of inheritance taxation on wealth accumulation and residential choice. This holds true also for the impact of inheritance taxes on tax planning and avoidance in general as well as inter vivos transfers in particular. Tax planning, avoidance and evasion responses are more pronounced than real responses. Behavioral responses to an inheritance tax are smaller compared to a recurrent net wealth tax. Therefore, policymakers aiming at the minimization of (revenue-reducing) behavioral responses should prefer an inheritance tax over a recurrent net wealth tax. Furthermore, the containment of (illegal) tax avoidance should be a priority for policymakers in order to secure legitimacy of and public support for inheritance taxation, but also to ensure that inheritance taxes are an efficient tool to reduce inequality, considering that avoidance and evasion are highly concentrated among the rich.
Studies, European Parliament, Luxembourg, June 2023, 23 pages, https://doi.org/doi:10.2861/670320
Commissioned by: European Parliament
Study by: Austrian Institute of Economic Research – Hertie School gGmbH – Queen Mary University of London – German Institute for Economic Research
Restrictive monetary policy dampens inflation effectively, but it also raises stress in financial markets. This happens through revaluations of financial assets on banks' balance sheets and through dampened economic activity. Moreover, apart from the positive effect of exiting negative interest rates, banks' net interest margin is generally negatively affected by interest rate hikes. With most of the disinflationary impact of higher interest rates yet to materialise, monetary policy should allow the financial sector to digest the rapid rate hikes of last year by reducing the pace of tightening.
Commissioned by: European Parliament
Study by: Austrian Institute of Economic Research – Hertie School gGmbH – Queen Mary University of London – German Institute for Economic Research
Online since: 12.01.2023 0:00
The dispersion of inflation rates within the euro area tends to increase in times of very strong energy price increases. A small part of this divergence is due to fiscal policy measures implemented by member countries and aimed at dampening the energy price increase. The monetary policy response of an inflation-targeting central bank to adverse supply shocks depends on the nature of the shock (demand or supply driven, temporary or permanent) and on the credibility of the central bank's commitment to the inflation target.
Studies, European Parliament, Luxembourg, June 2022, 31 pages, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/cmsdata/249582/WIFO_DEF.pdf
Commissioned by: European Parliament
Study by: Austrian Institute of Economic Research – Hertie School gGmbH – Queen Mary University of London – German Institute for Economic Research
Online since: 14.07.2022 0:00
Amidst an already heightened inflation environment, the repercussions of the war in Ukraine resemble a macroeconomic supply-side shock which puts monetary policy in a challenging situation. The ECB faces a difficult trade-off and needs to find the right balance between dampening inflation and sustaining economic growth. Our empirical estimates suggest that the ECB is presently not overly loose relative to its historical monetary policy record and that current inflation cannot be easily tamed by monetary policy alone.
Alexander Krenek (WU Wien), Margit Schratzenstaller (WIFO), Klaus Grünberger, Andreas Thiemann (European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Seville)
WIFO Research Briefs, 2022, (13), 8 pages
Commissioned by: European Commission
Online since: 17.05.2022 0:00
Based on the most recent data from the ECB's Household Finance and Consumption Survey, the project models the future household-level wealth distribution in five selected EU member countries (Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, and Italy) to derive inheritances based on different demographic and wealth projection scenarios. On this basis, various inheritance tax scenarios are simulated to estimate potential inheritance tax revenues for a projection period of 30 years. Our results indicate that multiple factors coincide in favouring a growing revenue potential for inheritance taxation in the medium-term. Wealth accumulation and appreciation lead to higher average wealth levels. The shift of the baby boomer generation out of the labour force results in an increase of the older population both in absolute and relative terms. Eventually, this will lead to a rise in the number of deaths and the number of inheritances. Additionally, low fertility rates lead to a reduction of the average number of successors and thereby decrease the importance of exemption thresholds, as individual inheritances become larger. Overall, our simulations show that the future revenue potential of inheritance taxes may be substantial. In practice, it can be expected that the theoretical revenue potential demonstrated by our simulations will be reduced by tax avoidance, real responses, and general equilibrium effects on other taxes. A review of the empirical evidence shows that behavioural responses to inheritance taxes are less pronounced compared to a net wealth tax.
François Levarlet, Michele Alessandrini (t33), Margit Schratzenstaller (WIFO), Nicolò Franceschelli (Blomeyer & Sanz)
Studies, European Parliament, Brussels, April 2022, 78 pages, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2022/732007/IPOL_STU(2022)732007_EN.pdf
Commissioned by: Blomeyer & Sanz
Study by: Austrian Institute of Economic Research
This study is an update of "Documenting Climate Mainstreaming in the EU Budget" published in 2020. The methodology used by the European Commission for tracking climate change and biodiversity related expenditure at EU level is reviewed again in the light of the Multiannual Financial Framework approved in 2021 and the new regulatory framework covering the period 2021-2027. This confirms the main strengths and weaknesses pointed out by the initial study. Recommendations for improving the tracking mechanisms are updated considering the new requirements of the Interinstitutional Agreement (2020).
Alexander Krenek, Margit Schratzenstaller, Klaus Grünberger (WIFO), Andreas Thiemann
WIFO Working Papers, 2022, (645), 103 pages
Commissioned by: European Commission
Online since: 13.04.2022 0:00
Based on the most recent data from the ECB's Household Finance and Consumption Survey, the project models the future household-level wealth distribution in five selected EU member countries (Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, and Italy) to derive inheritances based on different demographic and wealth projection scenarios. On this basis, various inheritance tax scenarios are simulated to estimate potential inheritance tax revenues for a projection period of 30 years. Our results indicate that multiple factors coincide in favouring a growing revenue potential for inheritance taxation in the medium-term. Wealth accumulation and appreciation lead to higher average wealth levels. The shift of the baby boomer generation out of the labour force results in an increase of the older population both in absolute and relative terms. Eventually, this will lead to a rise in the number of deaths and the number of inheritances. Additionally, low fertility rates lead to a reduction of the average number of successors and thereby decrease the importance of exemption thresholds, as individual inheritances become larger. Overall, our simulations show that the future revenue potential of inheritance taxes may be substantial. In practice, it can be expected that the theoretical revenue potential demonstrated by our simulations will be reduced by tax avoidance, real responses, and general equilibrium effects on other taxes. A review of the empirical evidence shows that behavioural responses to inheritance taxes are less pronounced compared to a net wealth tax.
Margit Schratzenstaller (WIFO), Danuše Nerudová, Veronika Solilová (MENDELU), Mario Holzner, Philipp Heimberger, Niko Korpar, Ambre Maucorps, Bernhard Moshammer (wiiw)
Studies, European Parliament, Brussels, March 2022, 183 pages, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2022/731895/IPOL_STU(2022)731895_EN.pdf
Study by: Austrian Institute of Economic Research
Commissioned by: Blomeyer & Sanz
Online since: 12.04.2022 0:00
This study was prepared at the request of the Budget Committee and assesses the Commission's recent legislative proposals for the new own resources included in the interinstitutional roadmap agreed together with the NextGenerationEU programme. These are a plastic-based contribution as well as own resources based on the EU Emission Trading System and a carbon border adjustment mechanism. Also, own resources based on the reallocation of taxation rights on profits of large MNE according to Pillar I. of the OECD/G20 Inclusive Framework on BEPS as well as the taxation of corporations and financial transactions, as further options stipulated in the IIA roadmap, are analysed. Finally, the study briefly reviews further own resource options which could create co-benefits and steering effects supporting a sustainable, inclusive, green and digital transition.
Mehr

Labour market and social policy (17 hits)

Erwerbs- und Einkommensverläufe in Österreich. Ein Vergleich der Entwicklung von vier Geburtsjahrgängen seit den 1970er-Jahren (Employment and Income Careers in Austria. A Comparison of the Development of Four Birth Cohorts Since the 1970s)
Studies, August 2021, 116 pages
Commissioned by: Vienna Chamber of Labour
Study by: Austrian Institute of Economic Research
Online since: 12.11.2021 0:00
 
In der vorliegenden Studie wurden die Erwerbskarrieren von vier Geburtsjahrgängen im Abstand von jeweils 10 Jahren, für die aus den Daten des Dachverbands der Sozialversicherungsträger wesentliche Teile der Erwerbskarrieren ab dem potentiellen Arbeitsmarkteintritt mit 15 Jahren verfügbar sind, verglichen: die Geburtsjahrgänge 1958, 1968, 1978 und 1988. Dabei zeigt sich u. a., dass durch die Höherqualifizierung die Erwerbseinstiegsphase später stattfindet. Geringqualifizierten fällt die Erwerbsintegration mit sinkenden Erwerbstätigenzeiten und steigenden Arbeitslosigkeitszeiten zunehmend schwerer. Der Anteil an Personen mit einem stabilen Erwerbverlauf hat bei Männern leicht und bei Frauen deutlich zugenommen. Ein stabiler Erwerbsverlauf im Haupterwerbsalter spiegelt sich bereits in höheren Erwerbstätigenzeiten und geringeren Arbeitslosigkeitszeiten bis zum Alter von 30 Jahren wider. Die erzielten (ausbildungs- und altersspezifischen) Erwerbseinkommen sinken jedoch im Generationenvergleich: Jüngere Jahrgänge verdienen tendenziell weniger als ältere Jahrgänge.
Die Effekte einer intensivierten Betreuung geringqualifizierter Jugendlicher mit Mindestsicherungsbezug. Evidenz aus der experimentellen Einführung eines Fallmanagements im Arbeitsmarktservice Wien (The Effects of Intensified Support for Low-Skilled Youths Receiving Minimum Benefits. Evidence from the Experimental Introduction of a Case Management in the Public Employment Service Vienna)
Studies, February 2021, 69 pages
Study by: Austrian Institute of Economic Research
Commissioned by: Public Employment Service Austria
Online since: 29.03.2021 0:00
 
Viele europäische Länder stehen vor der wichtigen Herausforderung, geringqualifizierte beschäftigungslose Jugendliche in den Arbeitsmarkt zu integrieren. Das Arbeitsmarktservice (AMS) Wien testete in den Jahren 2018 bis 2020 mittels eines kontrollierten Zufallsexperiments ein neues Modell einer intensivierten Betreuung ("Fallmanagement"). Die Zielgruppe waren arbeitslose Jugendliche mit geringer formaler Qualifikation und Mindestsicherungsbezug, viele davon Asyl- und subsidiär Schutzberechtigte. Wie die vorliegende Wirkungsanalyse zeigt, führte die Aufstockung des Personals zu einer signifikanten Steigerung der Betreuungsintensität und zu einer Zunahme von Vermittlungsvorschlägen, Maßnahmenzuweisungen und -teilnahmen, sowie von Sanktionen in Form von Sperren des Leistungsbezugs. Zielgemäß wurden die betreuten Jugendlichen vermehrt in eine Lehre oder eine sonstige Aus- und Weiterbildung anstatt rasch in "Hilfsjobs" vermittelt. Auf die Integration in Beschäftigung hatte die intensivierte Betreuung in der kurzen Frist von einem Jahr (noch) keinen signifikanten Effekt. Die langfristigen Wirkungen auf die Arbeitsmarktintegration werden maßgeblich davon abhängen, inwieweit die verstärkten Investitionen in Aus- und Weiterbildung zu einer langfristigen Steigerung der Beschäftigungschancen führen.
WIFO Working Papers, 2020, (607), 18 pages
Online since: 08.09.2020 0:00
Dieses Papier beschreibt den Aufbau und die Funktionsweise des dynamischen Mikrosimulationsmodells microDEMS zur Analyse der ökonomischen Integration von Immigranten und Immigrantinnen in Österreich. Dynamische Mikrosimulation bezeichnet die Simulation einer Bevölkerung, repräsentiert durch eine große Zahl von Individuen, über die Zeit. Simuliert werden neben demographischen Charakteristika wie Alter, Geschlecht und Herkunft verschiedene Aspekte individueller Lebensläufe wie Bildungs- und Erwerbskarrieren. microDEMS (Demographic Change, Employment and Social Security) ist ein am WIFO entwickeltes modulares dynamisches Mikrosimulationsmodell, welches für einen breiten Einsatzbereich in der österreichischen Wirtschaftsforschung konzipiert ist. Der Schwerpunkt dieses Papiers liegt in der Beschreibung jener Module, welche speziell zur Analyse der ökonomischen Integration von Immigrantinnen und Immigranten entwickelt wurden. microDEMS unterstützt die Erstellung von Szenarien zur Immigration nach Herkunft und Typ. Der individuelle (und elterliche) Immigrationshintergrund beeinflusst zahlreiche modellierte Verhalten wie Ausbildungskarrieren, Arbeitsmarktbeteiligung und Emigration. Das Modell erlaubt die Analyse der langfristigen Effekte alternativer Szenarien der Bildungs- und Erwerbsintegration von Immigrantinnen und Immigranten auf die soziodemographische Struktur der in Österreich lebenden Bevölkerung.
WIFO Working Papers, 2020, (606), 38 pages
Revised version (August 2020)
Online since: 28.08.2020 0:00
Labor supply shocks can have substantial effects on the Beveridge Curve. Structural VARs with sign restrictions show that the shocks associated with the free movement of workers from Eastern Europe have temporarily increased unemployment in Austria, a major destination country, by 25 percent and job vacancies by 40 percent. The 2 percent increase in total employment was accompanied by a temporary decline in the employment of domestic workers. The greatest impact is seen in regions bordering on the home countries of the migrant workers. Beyond these findings the paper addresses empirical regularities of labor supply shocks that are at odds with theoretical predictions.
WIFO Working Papers, 2020, (599), 46 pages
Online since: 26.04.2020 0:00
The paper builds Distributional National Accounts (DINA) using household survey data. We present a transparent and reproducible methodology to construct DINA whenever administrative tax data are not available for research and apply it to various European countries. By doing so, we build synthetic microdata files which cover the entire distribution, include all income components individually aligned to national accounts, and preserve the detailed socioeconomic information available in the surveys. The methodology uses harmonised and publicly available data sources (SILC, HFCS) and provides highly comparable results. We discuss the methodological steps and their impact on the income distribution. In particular, we highlight the effects of imputations and the adjustment of the variables to national accounts totals. Furthermore, we compare different income concepts of both the DINA and EG-DNA approach of the OECD in a consistent way. Our results confirm that constructing DINA is crucial to get a better picture of the income distribution. Our methodology is well suited to build synthetic microdata files which can be used for policy evaluation like social impact analysis and microsimulation.
Studies, March 2020, 34 pages
Commissioned by: Vienna Chamber of Labour
Study by: Austrian Institute of Economic Research
Online since: 01.03.2021 0:00
The report is an update of a set of labour market indices first developed and tested in 2010 in collaboration with experts of the Vienna Chamber of Labour (AK). The Austrian labour market is examined relative to the other 27 EU countries (including UK) according to the following key dimensions: overall labour market performance, participation of different groups of people, exclusion risks on the labour market, distribution of earnings and redistribution by the welfare state.
We develop and calibrate an analytical growth model in the Post-Keynesian tradition with an endogenous wealth distribution and differential returns to wealth between workers and capitalists. We show that a long-run equilibrium allows for non-zero wealth owned by workers, even as the model contains the "triumph of the rentier" predicted by Piketty as a special case. The model's calibration to ten European countries shows that the distribution of wealth is likely to become more unequal in all cases, barring political countermeasures.
Study by: Austrian Institute of Economic Research
Commissioned by: Bertelsmann Stiftung Gütersloh
Online since: 18.12.2019 0:00
Demographic projections foresee a pronounced population ageing process in the coming decades. The associated changes in quantity and quality of labour will have an impact on the long-term economic outlook. This study discusses economic implications of current demographic projections for a set of large industrialised economies, which include the largest EU member countries, the USA and Japan, as well as Austria as an example of a small open economy. The focus of the study is the interplay between demographic and technological trends. The study extends the methodology of the European Commission's Ageing Report by considering the effects of size and composition of the working-age population on the productivity growth and productivity effect of the ICT intensity as a measure of directed technological change.
Martina Lizarazo López, Thieß Petersen (Bertelsmann Stiftung Gütersloh), Thomas Url, Serguei Kaniovski (WIFO)
Gesamtwirtschaftliche Effekte der demografischen Alterung. Fokuspapier (Macroeconomic Consequences of Demographic Ageing. Focus Paper)
Study by: Austrian Institute of Economic Research
Commissioned by: Bertelsmann Stiftung Gütersloh
Online since: 18.12.2019 0:00
Demographische Prognosen gehen von einem deutlichen Alterungsprozess der Bevölkerung in den kommenden Jahrzehnten aus. Die damit verbundenen Veränderungen in Quantität und Qualität der Arbeitskräfte werden sich auf die langfristigen wirtschaftlichen Perspektiven auswirken. Diese Studie untersucht die wirtschaftlichen Implikationen aktueller demographischer Prognosen für eine Reihe großer Industrieländer – die größten Mitgliedsländer der EU, die USA und Japan – und Österreich als Beispiel für eine kleine offene Volkswirtschaft. Im Mittelpunkt der Studie steht das Zusammenspiel von demographischen und technologischen Trends. Die Studie erweitert die Methodik des "Ageing Report" der Europäischen Kommission, indem sie die Auswirkungen von Größe und Zusammensetzung der Bevölkerung im erwerbsfähigen Alter auf das Produktivitätswachstum und die Produktivitätswirkung der IKT-Intensität als Maß für den arbeitssparenden technologischen Wandel berücksichtigt.
Marian Fink, Jitka Janová, Danuše Nerudová, Jan Pavel, Margit Schratzenstaller, Friedrich Sindermann-Sienkiewicz, Martin Spielauer
Intereconomics – Review of European Economic Policy, 2019, 54, (3), pp.146-154, https://rdcu.be/bFkuW
The design of tax systems has a considerable impact on the personal distribution of income and wealth at the household and the individual level. Due to gender-differentiated socio-economic conditions, taxation may affect men and women differently. One of the most important areas of taxation is the personal income tax, which may have a gender-differentiated effect on work incentives and influence the distribution of paid and unpaid work between men and women. The paper presents an overview of the microsimulation results for selected provisions of the personal income tax system done with EUROMOD (a tax-benefit microsimulation model for the European Union) for six selected Member States: Germany, Austria, Spain, Czech Republic, United Kingdom and Sweden.
Mehr

Regional disparities and structural change (21 hits)

COVID-19-Krise führt zu tiefer Rezession im europäischen Bauwesen. Euroconstruct-Prognose bis 2023 (COVID-19 Crisis Leads to Deep Recession in European Construction Industry. Euroconstruct Forecast until 2023)
WIFO-Monatsberichte, 2021, 94(2), pp.115-125
Online since: 01.03.2021 0:00
 
Die Dynamik der europäischen Baukonjunktur hatte sich seit 2017 verlangsamt und brach 2020 infolge der COVID 19-Krise stark ein. Das Bauvolumen in den 19 Euroconstruct-Ländern schrumpfte 2020 gegenüber dem Vorjahr real um 7,8% auf 1.566 Mrd. €. Die Krise betraf den europäischen Wohnbau sowie den sonstigen Hochbau am stärksten. Dabei handelt es sich um jene Sektoren, die sich bereits vor Ausbruch der COVID-19-Krise in einer konjunkturell bedingten Abschwungphase befunden hatten. Für das Jahr 2021 wird ein Aufholprozess im Bauwesen erwartet, allerdings dürfte in allen Bausektoren das Wachstum nur teilweise die Rückgänge des Jahres 2020 ausgleichen. Wie Prognosen des Forschungsnetzwerkes Euroconstruct zeigen, wird das Bauvolumen des Vorkrisenjahres 2019 voraussichtlich erst wieder gegen Jahresende 2023 erreicht werden. Der Einbruch in der österreichischen Bauwirtschaft war 2020 im internationalen Vergleich eher gering, weshalb das Bauvolumen in Österreich bereits früher wieder das Vorkrisenniveau erreichen dürfte.
WIFO Working Papers, 2021, (624), 43 pages
Online since: 12.02.2021 14:00
Austria is a small open economy that in the last decades underwent two different waves of increasing trade integration: one with Eastern Europe and one with China. This paper studies the effects of increases in trade with China and Eastern Europe on labour market dynamics in Austrian NUTS-4 regions for two ten-year periods between 1995 and 2015. Given the limited data available, the current analysis could not identify significant effects on aggregate labour dynamics neither for rising imports from Eastern Europe or China, nor for rising exports to Eastern Europe. However, there is weak evidence that exports to China have facilitated employment growth, especially in high quality segments. Overall, these results add a cautious perspective to the discussion of import competition.
This research studies the effect of import competition from China for the period after the financial crisis 2008-09 until 2014. It draws on a unique dataset containing employment information for 248 regions in the EU. The uncovered coefficients are statistically not significant, indicating that Chinese imports were not an important driver of deindustrialisation in Europe in the period analysed. The estimates are imprecise, however. An analysis of the economic importance of the results leads to the conclusion that Chinese import competition was not a primary driving force of European manufacturing employment. Possible explanations for the lack of significant results are discussed.
We draw on trade theory to empirically explore the effects of value chain integration on producer price dynamics. Using the EU as an example of an integrated area, we construct measures of backward and forward linkages with intra‐ and extra‐EU trading partners at the country‐sector level. We find that especially upstream integration and EU accession dampen inflation. The results for downstream integration indicate a price‐increasing relationship. We propose novel EU integration indicators and offer insights to both theory and applied research. We also add to the policy debate on the price effects of (dis‐)integration of EU countries.
This non-technical article promotes the use of project-level data for monitoring and the evaluation of EU research and innovation policy. First, a new dataset of R&I-related projects co-funded by the ERDF during the multi-annual financial framework 2014-2020 is introduced. Second, this data is used, together with Horizon 2020 project information, in order to explore interlinkages between the funding schemes in terms of thematic priorities as well as beneficiaries. On average, 15 percent of ERDF projects could be identified as being carried out by a beneficiary that also receives funds from the Horizon 2020 programme.
Die Auswirkung der Digitalisierung in der Industrie auf den Gütertransport in Österreich (The Impact of Digitalisation in Industry on Freight Transport in Austria)
Studies, October 2020, 129 pages
Commissioned by: ÖBB-Infrastruktur Bau AG
Study by: Austrian Institute of Economic Research
Online since: 12.10.2020 0:00
 
Eine hochentwickelte Transport- und Logistikinfrastruktur sowie ein effizienter und technologisch fortschrittlicher Logistiksektor sind zentrale Faktoren für die Wettbewerbsfähigkeit einer Volkswirtschaft. Sie ermöglichen die Entwicklung internationaler Wertschöpfungsketten und das Fortschreiten der internationalen Arbeitsteilung. Die zunehmende Verbreitung neuer digitaler Technologien im Logistiksektor und in der Industrie stehen mit diesen Prozessen in einer kontinuierlichen Wechselwirkung. Der fortwährende technische Wandel und die Digitalisierung der Produktionsprozesse in der Industrie verändern jedoch laufend die Anforderungen an den Transport und die Logistik. Dies hat in Europa einen Rückgang des Bahntransports zugunsten des Straßentransports zur Folge. Für die Analyse dieses Zusammenhanges für Österreich wurden die Treiber der Nachfrage nach Gütertransportdienstleistungen identifiziert und ihre Wechselwirkungen mit dem Transportvolumen und der Entwicklung der Marktanteile zwischen den Verkehrsträgern Bahn und Straße untersucht. Sowohl der Strukturwandel als auch innersektorale Veränderungen waren demnach in der jüngeren Vergangenheit tendenziell bahnavers, wenn auch in Österreich – vor dem Hintergrund der Wirtschaftsstruktur – der Schienenanteil im Modal Split der intermediären Transportnachfrage unerwartet hoch ausfällt. Der Versuch der Einschätzung der künftigen Entwicklungen zeigt weitere Herausforderungen, aber auch Chancen für die Bahn auf – sie muss diese aber auch aktiv nützen.
Commissioned by: European Commission, Framework Programme
Study by: Austrian Institute of Economic Research – Statistics Netherlands – Istituto Nazionale di Statistica – Lunaria Associazione di Promozione Sociale e Impresa Sociale – United Nations University – Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology – Fondation Nationale des Sciences Politiques – Scuola superiore Sant'Anna – Statistics Austria – University College London – University of Ljubljana – University of Tartu – Catholic University of Leuven – Centre for European Economic Research – University of Bielefeld
This paper studies how the integration into a deep Regional Trade Agreement affects sector level productivity. Using the EU as an example, we construct an integration indicator that measures integration into the Single Market relative to global value chains. The results of a simultaneous equation model show an overall positive effect of integration on labour productivity, which is driven by upstream integration. Market distortions in regional value chains accumulate downstream and negatively affect productivity. Better domestic institutions facilitate the integration process at the industry level for both Member States and Non-Member States. Then again, better institutions seem to be more favourable to the integration of industries with less complex product portfolios and lower levels of knowledge cumulativeness.
 
The latest European construction market forecasts – presented at the 89th Euroconstruct conference, hosted by Prognoscentret AB, Stockholm and held on 12 June 2020 as a webinar – show that the European construction industry is being hit hard by the COVID-19 crisis. Total construction output will fall to a value of 1,500 billion € in 2020, which is the same level as in 2015. With a few exceptions, all EC-19 countries are experiencing a decline in 2020, with the UK and Ireland predicting the largest downturn. Against the background of the improving health situation, there will be a recovery as early as next year. – The Euroconstruct Country Report provides detailed information on the construction market trends and its fundamentals in each of the 19 Euroconstruct member countries until 2022. The forecasts and analyses are presented on the country level and are based on a harmonised dataset for the major construction sectors and indicators. The macroeconomic framework conditions are included additionally. With contributions by Anne-Sophie Alsif, Anders Bjerre, Christian Brander, Paul Donadieu de Lavit, Ludwig Dorffmeister, Antonio Coimbra, Thomas Ekvall, Mariem En-Nasiry, Josep Ramon Fontana, David Frič, Anne Kathrin Funk, János Gáspár, Paul Groot, Annette Hughes, Radovan Kostelník, Michael Klien, Nathalie Kouassi, Vladimir Lenko, Sonya Patel, Jean-Pierre Liebaert, Nejra Macic, Pascal Marlier, Markku Riihimäki, Radislav Semenov, Sara Snöbohm, Mariusz Sochacki, Antonella Stemperini, Michael Weingärtler.
 
In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, virtually all EC-19 countries are experiencing a decline in 2020, with the largest downturn for the UK and Ireland. Total construction output is expected to fall to 1,500 billion Euro in 2020, which is the same level as in 2015. All sub-sectors are affected by the crisis, but some are more than others. In the 19 Euroconstruct countries, the least affected sector is civil engineering, which is expected to decline by 7.2 percent this year and then recover in 2021 and 2022 with growth rates of 7.4 and 3.5 percent, respectively. The forecasted losses in both residential and non-residential construction are much more severe: they are expected to shrink by just over 12 percent in 2020 and improve by 3 to 6 percent p.a. in 2021 and 2022. – With contributions by Christian Brander, Josep Ramon Fontana, Tuomas Laitinen, Nejra Macic, Sara Snöbohm.
Quantitative Wirkungen der EU-Struktur- und Kohäsionspolitik in Österreich. Ein Beitrag zu "25 Jahre Österreich in der EU" (Quantitative Impacts of the ESI Funds and their Predecessors in Austria: A Cross-fund Analysis for the Entire Impact Period)
Studies, June 2020, 161 pages
Commissioned by: Austrian Conference on Statual Planning
Study by: Austrian Institute of Economic Research
Online since: 02.07.2020 0:00
 
Die Studie bietet erstmals eine integrierte und fondsübergreifende Analyse der quantitativen Effekte der ESI-Fonds und ihrer Vorgänger für den gesamten Zeitraum ihres Wirkens in Österreich (1995/2017). Grundlage ist eine neue, umfassende Datenbank zu den Auszahlungen der EU-Strukturfonds und der damit verbundenen nationalen öffentlichen Kofinanzierung auf räumlicher Ebene, die durch die Zusammenführung der Individualdatenbestände der fondsverantwortlichen bzw. abwickelnden Stellen im Rahmen des Projektes aufgebaut wurde. Auf ihrer Basis untersucht die Studie die regionalen Auszahlungsstrukturen der Fonds und die dadurch ausgelösten Effekte auf die Bundesländer sowie die kleinräumige Ebene (Arbeitsmarktbezirke, Gemeinden), wobei deskriptiv-statistische Methoden, ökonometrische Schätzmethoden sowie Simulationen mit dem multiregionalen Modell des WIFO zum Einsatz kommen. Die Hypothese, wonach die Interventionen der ESI-Fonds positive Entwicklungsimpulse in den geförderten Regionen ausgelöst haben, wird durch die Ergebnisse und die dazu durchgeführten Robustheitstests insgesamt gestützt. Zusammen mit deutlichen Resultaten zur "Treffsicherheit" ihres Mitteleinsatzes zugunsten ländlicher, ökonomisch benachteiligter Regionen spricht dies für einen positiven und relevanten Beitrag der ESIF-Initiativen zum regionalen Ausgleich in Österreich.
Mehr

Competitiveness and firm innovation (56 hits)

Zur Sorgfalt verpflichtet: entwaldungsfreie Lieferketten (Committed to Diligence: Deforestation-Free Supply Chains)
WIFO Research Briefs, 2024, (6), 10 pages
Commissioned by: Federal Ministry of Labour and Economy
Online since: 28.03.2024 9:00
Mit der Entwaldungsverordnung hat die EU einen wichtigen Schritt unternommen, um die globale Entwaldung zu verringern sowie die Nachhaltigkeit und Sorgfalt entlang von globalen Lieferketten zu stärken. Die EU-Verordnung über entwaldungsfreie Produkte (EUDR) fordert ab Ende 2024 die Einhaltung umfangreicher Sorgfaltspflichten für Rohstoffe wie Holz, Kautschuk, Soja, Kaffee, Ölpalme, Kakao und Rindfleisch und daraus hergestellten Produkten wie Schokolade, Palmöl, Gummireifen, Leder oder Papier, um potenzielle Risiken für Entwaldung, Waldschädigung und Menschenrechtsverletzungen zu ermitteln, vorzubeugen und zu bekämpfen. Modellsimulationen der wirtschaftlichen Effekte der EUDR im Rahmen der Studie "Trade and Welfare Effects of New Trade Policy Instruments" zeigen, dass die EUDR trotz moderater Wohlfahrtsverluste einen Beitrag zur Nachhaltigkeit leisten kann. Eine Reduktion des EU-Handels mit agrar- und forstwirtschaftlichen Produkten mit hohem Entwaldungsrisiko hat das Potenzial, die Entwaldung in Brasilien und Indonesien um etwa 8% bis 9% zu verringern. Die tatsächliche Wirkung der EUDR wird von ihrer effektiven Umsetzung in Kooperation mit wichtigen Handelspartnern, insbesondere weniger entwickelten Ländern, abhängen.
Nachhaltigkeit entlang globaler Lieferketten. Wirtschaftliche Effekte der EU-Richtlinie für Sorgfaltspflichten von Unternehmen (Sustainability Along Global Supply Chains. Economic Effects of the EU Corporate Sustainable Due Diligence Directive)
WIFO Research Briefs, 2024, (4), 11 pages
Commissioned by: Federal Ministry of Labour and Economy
Online since: 15.03.2024 13:30
Mit der Initiative zur Richtlinie über die Sorgfaltspflicht von Unternehmen im Hinblick auf Nachhaltigkeit (Corporate Sustainable Due Diligence Directive – CSDDD) hat die EU einen wichtigen Schritt unternommen, um verantwortungsbewusstes Handeln von Unternehmen über die Grenzen der EU hinaus zu fördern. Die in der CSDDD vorgesehenen Sorgfaltspflichten werden Kosten und Nutzen für Unternehmen in der EU, für Unternehmen außerhalb der EU mit erheblichen Umsätzen im EU-Binnenmarkt sowie für deren Zulieferer mit sich bringen. Dieser Research Brief fokussiert auf die möglichen gesamtwirtschaftlichen Effekte der Richtlinie. Modellsimulationen der CSDDD im Rahmen der Studie "Trade and Welfare Effects of New Trade Policy Instruments" zeigen zum einen, dass Wohlfahrtsverluste durch den Rückzug von EU-Unternehmen aus Ländern mit hohem Risiko von Menschenrechtsverletzungen möglich sind. Zum anderen bietet die CSDDD die Chance, Umwelt- und Menschenrechtsstandards weltweit zu stärken und das reale Einkommen global zu steigern. Die Ergebnisse unterstreichen somit die Bedeutung einer kooperativen Herangehensweise zur Förderung nachhaltiger Unternehmensführung entlang globaler Wertschöpfungsketten.
WIFO Working Papers, 2024, (669), 12 pages
Online since: 15.01.2024 0:00
The EU Directive on Corporate Sustainable Due Diligence has sparked fierce debate about the regulations of supply chains. The Directive's objectives are aligned with European values. Assuming that enforcements of social and environmental rules are absent in certain third countries, it privatises compliance costs in complex supply networks. This paper suggests options to make the Directive more effective and efficient. It should exclude countries with a sufficient regulatory system and focus not on the entire network but on supplier-buyer relationships only. Public agencies should set harmonised regulatory standards, interpret the regulations and organise a private certification scheme in which liabilities are assumed by certification companies. The proposed system resembles the market for financial auditors.
ASCII schlägt eine Überarbeitung der EU-Richtlinie zur Lieferkettensorgfaltspflicht vor, der EU Corporate Sustainable Due Diligence Directive. Die Richtlinie basiert auf europäischen Werten und ist zu begrüßen. Um eine kosteneffiziente Umsetzung zu ermöglichen, sollte sie sich auf die Überwachung von Zulieferern konzentrieren, anstatt auf bilaterale Beziehungen zwischen Käufern und Verkäufern. Negativ- und Positivlisten von Ländern und Zulieferern sollten eingeführt werden. Solche Listen enthalten ausländische Zulieferer, denen die Teilnahme an EU-Lieferketten verboten (Negativlisten) oder erlaubt (Positivlisten) ist. Mit Unternehmen auf Negativlisten dürfen keine Geschäfte getätigt werden. Bei Verträgen mit Unternehmen, die auf Positivlisten stehen, müssen EU-Importeure keine Sorgfaltsprüfung der Unternehmen durchführen. Dies senkt die Gesamtkosten der Verordnung für EU-Importeure, verringert die Wahrscheinlichkeit unerwünschter Nebenwirkungen und macht das Instrument wirksamer. Die Nichteinhaltung durch einen ausländischen Zulieferer kann zur Streichung von der Liste führen, was einem EU-weiten Exportverbot gleichkommt und somit die Marktmacht des EU-Binnenmarktes nutzt. Die Wirksamkeit würde auch dadurch erhöht, dass die Rechtsunsicherheit für Unternehmen verringert und der Geltungsbereich der Verordnung über in der EU ansässige Produktionsnetzwerke hinaus ausgedehnt würde.
ASCII proposes a revision of the EU directive on supply chain due diligence, the EU Corporate Sustainable Due Diligence Directive. The directive is based on European values and is to be welcomed. ASCII suggests that the Directive should focus, where possible, on direct monitoring of suppliers rather than on bilateral relationships between buyers and sellers. The directive should be amended to allow the use of negative and positive lists of countries and suppliers. Such lists contain foreign suppliers that are prohibited (negative lists) or authorised (positive lists) to participate in EU supply chains. When contracting with companies on positive lists, EU importers do not have to carry out due diligence on the companies. They are prohibited from doing business with companies on negative lists. The Directive will continue to apply to non-listed companies. This reduces the overall cost of the regulation for EU importers, reduces the likelihood of unwanted side-effects and makes the instrument more effective, as non-compliance by a foreign supplier leads to delisting throughout the EU, not just with a single buyer. It would also increase effectiveness by reducing legal uncertainty and extending the scope of the regulation beyond EU-based production networks.
Globalisation has had undesirable effects on the labour standards embedded in the products we consume. This paper proposes an ex-ante evaluation of supply chain due diligence regulations, such as the EU Corporate Sustainable Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD). We construct a full-scale network model derived from structural business statistics of 30 million EU firms to quantify the likelihood of links to firms potentially involved in human rights abuses in the European supply chain. The 900 million supply links of these firms are modelled in a way that is consistent with multiregional input-output data, EU import data, and stylized facts of firm-level production networks. We find that this network exhibits a small world effect with three degrees of separation, meaning that most firms are no more than three steps away from each other in the network. Consequently, we find that about 8.5 percent of EU companies are at risk of having child or forced labour in the first tier of their supply chains, about 82.4 percent are likely to have such offenders at the second tier and more than 99.1 percent have such offenders at the third tier. We also profile companies by country, sector, and size for the likelihood of having human rights violations or child and forced labour violations at a given tier in their supply chain, revealing considerable heterogeneity across EU companies. Our results show that supply chain due diligence regulations that focus on monitoring individual buyer-supplier links, as currently proposed in the CSDDD, are likely to be ineffective due to a high degree of redundancy and the fact that individual company value chains cannot be properly isolated from the global supply network. Rather, to maximise cost-effectiveness without compromising due diligence coverage, we suggest that regulations should focus on monitoring individual suppliers.
WIFO Working Papers, 2022, (654), 54 pages
Supported by: Anniversary Fund of the Oesterreichische Nationalbank
Online since: 19.12.2022 0:00
The import competition literature suggests that Chinese industrial policies and technological trends have altered the nature of competition with China so that it does not take place on a level playing field anymore. Empirical evidence about firms' reactions in developed economies to competition with China is inconclusive, however. This paper studies how small, highly internationalised and specialised firms react to the growing penetration of Chinese exporters on their markets. We use a sample of Austrian manufacturing companies to explore the impact of increasing competition on changes in corporate strategy. We propose a novel indicator capturing import competition that highly internationalised companies face. We examine how firms adapt their search strategies related to technological capabilities and markets. While the exposure to Chinese competition has been on average relatively low, its impact on diversification choices has been significant. Companies exposed to growing Chinese competition are more likely to diversify their geographic markets, but less likely to diversify their product portfolio or broaden their competence base. These patterns are also reflected by changes in trade data.
Mehr

Climate, energy and environmental policies (28 hits)

Zur Sorgfalt verpflichtet: entwaldungsfreie Lieferketten (Committed to Diligence: Deforestation-Free Supply Chains)
WIFO Research Briefs, 2024, (6), 10 pages
Commissioned by: Federal Ministry of Labour and Economy
Online since: 28.03.2024 9:00
Mit der Entwaldungsverordnung hat die EU einen wichtigen Schritt unternommen, um die globale Entwaldung zu verringern sowie die Nachhaltigkeit und Sorgfalt entlang von globalen Lieferketten zu stärken. Die EU-Verordnung über entwaldungsfreie Produkte (EUDR) fordert ab Ende 2024 die Einhaltung umfangreicher Sorgfaltspflichten für Rohstoffe wie Holz, Kautschuk, Soja, Kaffee, Ölpalme, Kakao und Rindfleisch und daraus hergestellten Produkten wie Schokolade, Palmöl, Gummireifen, Leder oder Papier, um potenzielle Risiken für Entwaldung, Waldschädigung und Menschenrechtsverletzungen zu ermitteln, vorzubeugen und zu bekämpfen. Modellsimulationen der wirtschaftlichen Effekte der EUDR im Rahmen der Studie "Trade and Welfare Effects of New Trade Policy Instruments" zeigen, dass die EUDR trotz moderater Wohlfahrtsverluste einen Beitrag zur Nachhaltigkeit leisten kann. Eine Reduktion des EU-Handels mit agrar- und forstwirtschaftlichen Produkten mit hohem Entwaldungsrisiko hat das Potenzial, die Entwaldung in Brasilien und Indonesien um etwa 8% bis 9% zu verringern. Die tatsächliche Wirkung der EUDR wird von ihrer effektiven Umsetzung in Kooperation mit wichtigen Handelspartnern, insbesondere weniger entwickelten Ländern, abhängen.
EU-Grenzausgleich. Ambitionierte Klimaziele und Wettbewerbsfähigkeit in Einklang bringen? (EU Carbon Border Adjustment. Aligning Ambitious Climate Targets and Competitiveness?)
WIFO Research Briefs, 2024, (2), 10 pages
Commissioned by: Federal Ministry of Labour and Economy
Online since: 06.03.2024 9:00
In Ergänzung zum reformierten EU-Emissionshandelssystem stellt der EU-Grenzausgleich einen zentralen Baustein dar, um internationale Unterschiede in den Klimaambitionen und in der Bepreisung von CO2-Emissionen auszugleichen und eine klimaneutrale EU bis 2050 zu erreichen. Mit dem Instrument setzt sich die EU zum Ziel, die Wettbewerbsfähigkeit europäischer Produzenten trotz verschärfter EU-Klimaziele und steigender CO2-Kosten zu sichern und das Risiko von Carbon Leakage, die Verlagerung von Emissionen in Länder mit weniger strengen Emissionsvorschriften, zu vermindern. Die Modellsimulationen der Studie "Trade and Welfare Effects of New Trade Policy Instruments" zeigen, dass ein klimapolitischer Alleingang der EU nur ein sehr begrenztes Potenzial zur Verringerung der globalen Emissionen aufweist und moderate Wohlstandseinbußen mit sich bringt. Im Gegensatz dazu erzielt eine klimapolitische Kooperation die größten globalen Emissionsminderungen und schafft durch Vermeidung von Klimafolgekosten Wohlfahrtsgewinne. Ein gemeinsamer Klimaklub der EU mit den USA, dem Vereinigten Königreich, Kanada und Japan senkt die globalen Emissionen um 14,8%, dies entspricht einer jährlichen Reduzierung der CO2-Emissionen um 5,46 Mrd. t.
FIW – Research Centre International Economics, February 2024, 222 pages, https://www.fiw.ac.at/publications/trade-and-welfare-effects-of-new-trade-policy-instruments/
Commissioned by: Federal Ministry of Labour and Economy
Study by: Austrian Institute of Economic Research
Online since: 20.02.2024 0:00
Geoeconomic concepts are gaining importance in EU trade policy. In this context new trade policy instruments are designed to protect the internal market against unfair trade practices, coercive actions as well as to ensure sustainable supply chains and the protection of human rights. The study extensively overviews seven policy instruments: Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI), Enforcement Regulation (ER), International Procurement Instrument (IPI), Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence (CSDD), Level Playing Field Provisions in the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (LPF), and EU Regulation on Deforestation-Free Products (EUDR). Using gravity models and a quantitative general equilibrium trade model, the impact of the selected trade policy instruments on trade and welfare of the EU as well as Austria is estimated based on different scenarios.
In view of the challenges posed by climate change and the increasingly ambitious climate targets around the world, the search for effective climate policy instruments is gaining momentum. Carbon pricing, for example, in the form of a carbon tax, and its effects are therefore attracting increasing attention in academic as well as policy discussions. We review the empirical effects of carbon taxes with regard to several impact dimensions commonly studied in the literature: environmental effectiveness, macroeconomic effects, impacts on competitiveness and innovation, distributional implications, and public acceptance. An increasing body of empirical studies shows that carbon taxes can effectively reduce carbon emissions or at least dampen their growth while not negatively affecting economic growth, employment, and competitiveness. The existing empirical evidence suggests that the distributional impact of carbon taxes depends on the type of energy use and the indicators to capture distributional effects, as well as on household characteristics. Lump-sum transfers are shown to be better suited to mitigate regressive effects for lower incomes, while higher incomes benefit more from a reduction of labour taxes. Public acceptance of carbon taxes can be increased by providing public information, avoiding negative distributional effects, and channelling part of the revenues into "environmental projects".
Subsidising homeownership decentralises cities, as Muth (1967) suggested over half a century ago. This article focuses on the related question of whether repealing a homeownership subsidy recentralises cities. This question is relevant today, given the ubiquity of homeownership subsidies. We provide a first quasi-experimental test of a subsidy repeal's spatial effects by examining Germany's 2005 homeownership subsidy reform. We find that repealing the subsidy contributed to recentralising Germany's cities. Since recentralisation helps abate carbon dioxide emissions, repealing a homeownership subsidy also helps mitigate climate change.
WIFO Research Briefs, 2023, (3), 12 pages
Online since: 22.02.2023 0:00
Auch die Steuern und Abgaben sehen sich großen Herausforderungen der Transformation gegenüber. Sie spielen im Rahmen der Klima- und Umweltpolitik sowohl als Instrument zur Finanzierung öffentlicher Leistungen im Allgemeinen und klima- und umweltpolitischer Aufgaben im Besonderen als auch als Lenkungsinstrument eine wichtige Rolle. Im Verhältnis zur Wirtschaftsleistung ist in Österreich das Aufkommen an Umweltsteuern im engeren Sinne langfristig konstant und liegt anhaltend unter dem EU-Durchschnitt. Dagegen haben die umweltrelevanten Zahlungen an Gemeinden (z. B. Abwasser- oder Müllgebühren) und sonstige Gebietskörperschaften deutlich an Gewicht gewonnen. Mit der Einführung einer CO2-Bepreisung im Jahr 2022 schließt Österreich an die wachsende Gruppe jener Länder auf, die eine CO2-Bepreisung als Instrument der Klimapolitik nutzen. Künftige Reformen sollten auf einen umfassenderen Beitrag des Abgabensystems zur erforderlichen sozio-ökologischen Transformation abzielen, der über die derzeitige Fokussierung auf klimapolitische Zielsetzungen hinausgeht. Insbesondere soll das Abgabensystem im Rahmen eines breiteren Maßnahmen-Mix helfen, den Ressourcenverbrauch (einschließlich der Ressource Boden) einzudämmen, die Biodiversität zu schützen und die Kreislaufwirtschaft zu unterstützen. Dies erfordert auch den stärkeren Einsatz von transformativen Abgaben auf den subnationalen Ebenen.
François Levarlet, Michele Alessandrini (t33), Margit Schratzenstaller (WIFO), Nicolò Franceschelli (Blomeyer & Sanz)
Studies, European Parliament, Brussels, April 2022, 78 pages, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2022/732007/IPOL_STU(2022)732007_EN.pdf
Commissioned by: Blomeyer & Sanz
Study by: Austrian Institute of Economic Research
This study is an update of "Documenting Climate Mainstreaming in the EU Budget" published in 2020. The methodology used by the European Commission for tracking climate change and biodiversity related expenditure at EU level is reviewed again in the light of the Multiannual Financial Framework approved in 2021 and the new regulatory framework covering the period 2021-2027. This confirms the main strengths and weaknesses pointed out by the initial study. Recommendations for improving the tracking mechanisms are updated considering the new requirements of the Interinstitutional Agreement (2020).
WIFO Working Papers, 2022, (646), 44 pages
Commissioned by: European Commission
Online since: 08.04.2022 0:00
As governments spend unprecedented sums of public money on pandemic related rescue and recovery measures, while humankind is facing mounting long-term challenges – and above all the climate crisis –, the question whether and to what extent COVID-19 recovery programmes contribute to countries' commitments to a sustainability oriented recovery is gaining increasing urgency. We argue that overcoming the economic and social impacts of the pandemic require deeper structural changes than a return to a more or less business as usual scenario to limit the impacts of climate change. Recovery packages should therefore be designed in such a way as to avoid fossil lock-in effects and take into account that the social and technological actions taken today will unfold their effects in the climate system with a time lag only. An interesting question in this context is the effectiveness of green recovery measures not only with regard to environmental objectives, but also concerning conventional economic indicators, which are traditionally summarised under the heading "multiplier effects". Evaluations of the economic effects of green recovery measures, e.g. those implemented during the global financial crisis, are in short supply. Most of the existing empirical analyses have an ex ante focus, while ex post evaluations are scarce. This paper aims at contributing to this research gap by providing a review of the empirical evidence of the macroeconomic effects of green recovery measures.
Alexander Krenek, Margit Schratzenstaller, Klaus Grünberger (WIFO), Andreas Thiemann
WIFO Working Papers, 2022, (645), 103 pages
Commissioned by: European Commission
Online since: 13.04.2022 0:00
Based on the most recent data from the ECB's Household Finance and Consumption Survey, the project models the future household-level wealth distribution in five selected EU member countries (Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, and Italy) to derive inheritances based on different demographic and wealth projection scenarios. On this basis, various inheritance tax scenarios are simulated to estimate potential inheritance tax revenues for a projection period of 30 years. Our results indicate that multiple factors coincide in favouring a growing revenue potential for inheritance taxation in the medium-term. Wealth accumulation and appreciation lead to higher average wealth levels. The shift of the baby boomer generation out of the labour force results in an increase of the older population both in absolute and relative terms. Eventually, this will lead to a rise in the number of deaths and the number of inheritances. Additionally, low fertility rates lead to a reduction of the average number of successors and thereby decrease the importance of exemption thresholds, as individual inheritances become larger. Overall, our simulations show that the future revenue potential of inheritance taxes may be substantial. In practice, it can be expected that the theoretical revenue potential demonstrated by our simulations will be reduced by tax avoidance, real responses, and general equilibrium effects on other taxes. A review of the empirical evidence shows that behavioural responses to inheritance taxes are less pronounced compared to a net wealth tax.
Ein Ausblick auf die Treibhausgasemissionen in Österreich 2021 und 2022 (An Outlook on Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Austria in 2021 and 2022)
WIFO Working Papers, 2021, (628), 33 pages
Online since: 19.04.2021 0:00
In dem vorliegenden Bericht wird ein methodischer Zugang vorgestellt, der es gestattet, die Auswirkungen von Änderungen der Wirtschaftsentwicklung in Österreich auf die Emission von Treibhausgasen (THG) zeitnah sichtbar zu machen. Dieses Werkzeug, dessen Kern die Input-Output-Tabelle der österreichischen Volkswirtschaft ist, wird angewendet, um die Auswirkungen der COVID-19-Krise im Jahr 2020 und die vom WIFO prognostizierte Erholung der Wirtschaft in den Jahren 2021 und 2022 auf die THG-Emissionen zu bestimmen. Den Schätzungen zu Folge sind die THG-Emissionen im Jahr 2020 um mehr als 7% im Vergleich zum Jahr 2019 gesunken. Im Jahr 2021 dürften sie gegenüber 2020 um 2% ansteigen und der Anstieg 2022 gegenüber 2021 wird 3,7% betragen. Im Jahr 2022 dürften die Treibhausgasemissionen folglich noch um knapp 2 Mio. t niedriger als 2019 sein und somit etwas niedriger als 1990, dem Basisjahr des Kyoto-Protokolls (78,4 Mio. t. CO2-Äquivalente). In den Berechnungen sind Landnutzung, deren Änderung und Forstwirtschaft ausgeklammert. Verglichen mit der WIFO-Prognose zum Wirtschaftswachstum im Lockdown-Szenario für 2021 von +1,5% und +4,7% im Jahr 2022 weicht der erwartete Anstieg der Emissionen somit deutlich ab. Die unterschiedlichen Änderungsraten sind darauf zurückzuführen, dass die Herstellung von Waren, die emissionsintensive Sektoren umfasst, bereits 2021 stärker wachsen werden und Sektoren mit geringeren Emissionen wie die Gastronomie und Beherbergung erst 2022 aufholen werden.
Mehr

Impact studies (6 hits)

FIW – Research Centre International Economics, February 2024, 222 pages, https://www.fiw.ac.at/publications/trade-and-welfare-effects-of-new-trade-policy-instruments/
Commissioned by: Federal Ministry of Labour and Economy
Study by: Austrian Institute of Economic Research
Online since: 20.02.2024 0:00
Geoeconomic concepts are gaining importance in EU trade policy. In this context new trade policy instruments are designed to protect the internal market against unfair trade practices, coercive actions as well as to ensure sustainable supply chains and the protection of human rights. The study extensively overviews seven policy instruments: Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI), Enforcement Regulation (ER), International Procurement Instrument (IPI), Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence (CSDD), Level Playing Field Provisions in the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (LPF), and EU Regulation on Deforestation-Free Products (EUDR). Using gravity models and a quantitative general equilibrium trade model, the impact of the selected trade policy instruments on trade and welfare of the EU as well as Austria is estimated based on different scenarios.
Commissioned by: Federal Ministry for Digital and Economic Affairs
Study by: Austrian Institute of Economic Research
The creation of uniform, legally binding norms and standards is an essential basis for the functioning of the EU single market, which at the same time is increasingly spread beyond the EU's borders through international trade relations. The shaping of global standards and regulations according to EU directives even beyond the EU's borders represents an important competitive advantage of the EU. The EU also manages to impose rules, regulations and standards only through market mechanisms in third countries without international treaties or agreements. This has in many areas contributed to the "Europeanisation" of important aspects of global trade. In the academic literature, this regulatory influence of the EU is defined as the "Brussels Effect". The focus of this study is to give a comprehensive overview of the Brussels Effect and to analyse the linkages regarding EU trade policy, outlining to what extent a Brussels Effect can be observed in the network of EU trade agreements. Based on a comprehensive and broad identification of the Brussels Effect, this study aims to quantify the trade effects in terms of the leading role in shaping global standards and regulations for the EU and Austria and to qualitatively identify further areas in which untapped potentials of a "Brussels Effect 2.0" seem possible in the context of EU trade policy.
FIW – Research Centre International Economics, January 2021, 55 pages, https://fiw.ac.at/
Commissioned by: Federal Ministry for Digital and Economic Affairs
Study by: Austrian Institute of Economic Research
Online since: 14.01.2021 0:00
Diese Studie liefert ein Update zu den 2017 berechneten Handels- und Wohlfahrtseffekten des Brexit für die österreichische und die britische Wirtschaft ("Estimating the Trade and Welfare Effects of Brexit. A Panel Data Structural Gravity Model"). Die Schätzung erfolgt mit einem strukturellen Gravitationsmodell auf disaggregiertem Branchenniveau. Die Studie vergleicht die ökonomischen Folgen des am 24. Dezember 2020 vereinbarten Freihandelsabkommens zwischen der EU und dem Vereinigten Königreich mit den Handels- und Wohlfahrtseffekten aus einem ungeregelten Ausscheiden des Vereinigten Königreichs. Demnach dämpft das Freihandelsabkommen die negativen bilateralen Handelseffekte, kompensiert sie jedoch nicht vollständig. Das Vereinigte Königreich ist vom Ausscheiden deutlich stärker als Österreich betroffen. Die größten negativen Handelseffekte zeigen sich für den Agrarsektor sowie in der für den bilateralen Handel wichtigen Kfz-Branche.
This paper proposes a new panel data structural gravity approach for estimating the trade and welfare effects of Brexit. The suggested Constrained Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Estimator exhibits some useful properties for trade policy analysis and allows to obtain estimates and confidence intervals which are consistent with structural trade theory. Assuming different counterfactual post-Brexit scenarios, our main findings suggest that UK's exports of goods to the EU are likely to decline within a range between 7.2 percent and 45.7 percent (EU's exports to UK by 5.9 percent to 38.2 percent) six years after the Brexit has taken place. For the UK, the negative trade effects are only partially offset by an increase in domestic goods trade and trade with third countries, inducing a decline in UK's real income between 1.4 percent and 5.7 percent under the hard Brexit scenario. The estimated welfare effects for the EU are negligible in magnitude and statistically not different from zero.
Studies, September 2017, 59 pages
Commissioned by: European Parliament
Study by: Austrian Institute of Economic Research
Online since: 10.10.2017 0:00
 
This report summarises empirical facts about the economic impact of the EU sanctions against Russia and the Russian countersanctions, both implemented in the summer of 2014. The observed decline in trade volumes between the EU and Russia is not only due to the sanctions, but also by other economic factors, such as the downturn of the Russian economy, largely caused by the falling oil price and the ensuing ruble depreciation. Furthermore, empirical evidence suggests that European and Russian companies alike managed to partly divert trade flows to other international markets in response to the deteriorating trade relationships. Overall trade diversion, however, cannot nearly compensate for losses of EU exports to Russia and thus mitigate the economy-wide negative impacts. Finally, descriptive evidence and additional information seem to indicate that compliance with the sanctions was partly circumvented right after the implementation of the sanctions in 2014, in particular for agri-food goods via countries of the Eurasian Economic Union. Legal trade diversion through countries unaffected by the sanctions has also taken place. It is important to emphasise that this study does not assess the political costs or effectiveness of the sanctions, but merely analyses potential economic costs caused by all sanction measures in place.
Studies, Luxembourg, March 2017, 66 pages, http://dx.doi.org/10.2760/313390
Study by: Austrian Institute of Economic Research – EC Joint Research Centre, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies
Commissioned by: European Commission
This report serves as an update of "FIDELIO 1: Fully Interregional Dynamic Econometric Long-term Input-Output model for the EU 27" by Kratena et al. (2013), i.e., the manual of the first version of the FIDELIO model. FIDELIO fits into the generation of macroeconomic multi-sectoral input-output models whose earliest contributions include the Cambridge MDM (Barker, 1976) and the INFORUM (Almon et al., 1974) models for the UK and the USA, respectively. Such econometric input-output models have grown over time in terms of complexity and scope and are used for macroeconomic modelling purposes alongside other types of general equilibrium models (including DSGE ones). This report explores the theoretical foundations of the latest version of the model, FIDELIO 2 (which has been developed between 2014 and 2016), and contains a description of its main features. With respect to its initial version, the model has been extended in a number of ways. For instance, and without entering into detail at this stage, seven non-EU countries are now included in the model (Brazil, China, India, Japan, Russia, Turkey and the USA) in addition to the 27 EU countries already included in the first version; both trade and household final demand are now modelled in a considerably more complex way than before; there is an environmental block dealing with greenhouse gas emissions, and the base year is 2007 rather than 2005. Thus, it was deemed necessary to present all the new model characteristics in an organic way via the present technical report. The remainder of this report is organised as follows: Section 1 provides a concise macro-overview of FIDELIO 2 which relies very much on the first section of the FIDELIO 1 manual by Kratena et al. (2013). Section 2 presents the economic theories underlying the core blocks of FIDELIO 2. This report serves two main purposes. First, it is an adequate resource for the readers who are interested in the model's main features. Second, it facilitates the process of understanding all the details of FIDELIO 2 for those who want to learn the logic and the theory behind its construction. Such readers are expected to grasp the general structure of the model by reading Section 1, helped by the overview of the model's main economic flows contained in Figure 1. Then, Section 2 goes through the theoretical foundations of the various model blocks.

Thematic Platform "European Union"

List of publications (97 hits)

Zur Sorgfalt verpflichtet: entwaldungsfreie Lieferketten (Committed to Diligence: Deforestation-Free Supply Chains)
WIFO Research Briefs, 2024, (6), 10 pages
Commissioned by: Federal Ministry of Labour and Economy
Online since: 28.03.2024 9:00
Mit der Entwaldungsverordnung hat die EU einen wichtigen Schritt unternommen, um die globale Entwaldung zu verringern sowie die Nachhaltigkeit und Sorgfalt entlang von globalen Lieferketten zu stärken. Die EU-Verordnung über entwaldungsfreie Produkte (EUDR) fordert ab Ende 2024 die Einhaltung umfangreicher Sorgfaltspflichten für Rohstoffe wie Holz, Kautschuk, Soja, Kaffee, Ölpalme, Kakao und Rindfleisch und daraus hergestellten Produkten wie Schokolade, Palmöl, Gummireifen, Leder oder Papier, um potenzielle Risiken für Entwaldung, Waldschädigung und Menschenrechtsverletzungen zu ermitteln, vorzubeugen und zu bekämpfen. Modellsimulationen der wirtschaftlichen Effekte der EUDR im Rahmen der Studie "Trade and Welfare Effects of New Trade Policy Instruments" zeigen, dass die EUDR trotz moderater Wohlfahrtsverluste einen Beitrag zur Nachhaltigkeit leisten kann. Eine Reduktion des EU-Handels mit agrar- und forstwirtschaftlichen Produkten mit hohem Entwaldungsrisiko hat das Potenzial, die Entwaldung in Brasilien und Indonesien um etwa 8% bis 9% zu verringern. Die tatsächliche Wirkung der EUDR wird von ihrer effektiven Umsetzung in Kooperation mit wichtigen Handelspartnern, insbesondere weniger entwickelten Ländern, abhängen.
Nachhaltigkeit entlang globaler Lieferketten. Wirtschaftliche Effekte der EU-Richtlinie für Sorgfaltspflichten von Unternehmen (Sustainability Along Global Supply Chains. Economic Effects of the EU Corporate Sustainable Due Diligence Directive)
WIFO Research Briefs, 2024, (4), 11 pages
Commissioned by: Federal Ministry of Labour and Economy
Online since: 15.03.2024 13:30
Mit der Initiative zur Richtlinie über die Sorgfaltspflicht von Unternehmen im Hinblick auf Nachhaltigkeit (Corporate Sustainable Due Diligence Directive – CSDDD) hat die EU einen wichtigen Schritt unternommen, um verantwortungsbewusstes Handeln von Unternehmen über die Grenzen der EU hinaus zu fördern. Die in der CSDDD vorgesehenen Sorgfaltspflichten werden Kosten und Nutzen für Unternehmen in der EU, für Unternehmen außerhalb der EU mit erheblichen Umsätzen im EU-Binnenmarkt sowie für deren Zulieferer mit sich bringen. Dieser Research Brief fokussiert auf die möglichen gesamtwirtschaftlichen Effekte der Richtlinie. Modellsimulationen der CSDDD im Rahmen der Studie "Trade and Welfare Effects of New Trade Policy Instruments" zeigen zum einen, dass Wohlfahrtsverluste durch den Rückzug von EU-Unternehmen aus Ländern mit hohem Risiko von Menschenrechtsverletzungen möglich sind. Zum anderen bietet die CSDDD die Chance, Umwelt- und Menschenrechtsstandards weltweit zu stärken und das reale Einkommen global zu steigern. Die Ergebnisse unterstreichen somit die Bedeutung einer kooperativen Herangehensweise zur Förderung nachhaltiger Unternehmensführung entlang globaler Wertschöpfungsketten.
EU-Grenzausgleich. Ambitionierte Klimaziele und Wettbewerbsfähigkeit in Einklang bringen? (EU Carbon Border Adjustment. Aligning Ambitious Climate Targets and Competitiveness?)
WIFO Research Briefs, 2024, (2), 10 pages
Commissioned by: Federal Ministry of Labour and Economy
Online since: 06.03.2024 9:00
In Ergänzung zum reformierten EU-Emissionshandelssystem stellt der EU-Grenzausgleich einen zentralen Baustein dar, um internationale Unterschiede in den Klimaambitionen und in der Bepreisung von CO2-Emissionen auszugleichen und eine klimaneutrale EU bis 2050 zu erreichen. Mit dem Instrument setzt sich die EU zum Ziel, die Wettbewerbsfähigkeit europäischer Produzenten trotz verschärfter EU-Klimaziele und steigender CO2-Kosten zu sichern und das Risiko von Carbon Leakage, die Verlagerung von Emissionen in Länder mit weniger strengen Emissionsvorschriften, zu vermindern. Die Modellsimulationen der Studie "Trade and Welfare Effects of New Trade Policy Instruments" zeigen, dass ein klimapolitischer Alleingang der EU nur ein sehr begrenztes Potenzial zur Verringerung der globalen Emissionen aufweist und moderate Wohlstandseinbußen mit sich bringt. Im Gegensatz dazu erzielt eine klimapolitische Kooperation die größten globalen Emissionsminderungen und schafft durch Vermeidung von Klimafolgekosten Wohlfahrtsgewinne. Ein gemeinsamer Klimaklub der EU mit den USA, dem Vereinigten Königreich, Kanada und Japan senkt die globalen Emissionen um 14,8%, dies entspricht einer jährlichen Reduzierung der CO2-Emissionen um 5,46 Mrd. t.
Kerstin Bernoth (DIW Berlin), Sara Dietz (LMU Munich), Rosa Lastra (Queen Mary University of London, Centre for Commercial Law Studies), Atanas Pekanov (WIFO)
Studies, European Parliament, Luxembourg, February 2024, 33 pages, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/cmsdata/280743/DIW February 2024_final.pdf
Commissioned by: European Parliament
Study by: Austrian Institute of Economic Research – Hertie School gGmbH – Queen Mary University of London – German Institute for Economic Research
Online since: 13.03.2024 0:00
This paper considers the past, present, and future of the ECB monetary policy. Looking backwards, the ECB has succeeded in navigating through several crises. Looking forward, the paper examines some of the main challenges confronting the ECB in the years ahead with climate change, digitalisation, inequality, sovereign indebtedness, and the completion of Banking Union complicating the pursuit of the price stability primary objective.
FIW – Research Centre International Economics, February 2024, 222 pages, https://www.fiw.ac.at/publications/trade-and-welfare-effects-of-new-trade-policy-instruments/
Commissioned by: Federal Ministry of Labour and Economy
Study by: Austrian Institute of Economic Research
Online since: 20.02.2024 0:00
Geoeconomic concepts are gaining importance in EU trade policy. In this context new trade policy instruments are designed to protect the internal market against unfair trade practices, coercive actions as well as to ensure sustainable supply chains and the protection of human rights. The study extensively overviews seven policy instruments: Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI), Enforcement Regulation (ER), International Procurement Instrument (IPI), Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence (CSDD), Level Playing Field Provisions in the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (LPF), and EU Regulation on Deforestation-Free Products (EUDR). Using gravity models and a quantitative general equilibrium trade model, the impact of the selected trade policy instruments on trade and welfare of the EU as well as Austria is estimated based on different scenarios.
WIFO Working Papers, 2024, (669), 12 pages
Online since: 15.01.2024 0:00
The EU Directive on Corporate Sustainable Due Diligence has sparked fierce debate about the regulations of supply chains. The Directive's objectives are aligned with European values. Assuming that enforcements of social and environmental rules are absent in certain third countries, it privatises compliance costs in complex supply networks. This paper suggests options to make the Directive more effective and efficient. It should exclude countries with a sufficient regulatory system and focus not on the entire network but on supplier-buyer relationships only. Public agencies should set harmonised regulatory standards, interpret the regulations and organise a private certification scheme in which liabilities are assumed by certification companies. The proposed system resembles the market for financial auditors.
WIFO Working Papers, 2023, (668), 41 pages
Online since: 20.12.2023 0:00
Wealth inequality and concentration, together with the search for options to secure long-term sufficiency of tax systems in face of ageing societies, have recently moved the taxation of inheritances into the spotlight. The question if and to what extent behavioral responses by bequeathers may undermine the revenue potential of inheritance taxes is central for policy design. This survey of the empirical literature finds an overall moderate impact of inheritance taxation on wealth accumulation and residential choice. This holds true also for the impact of inheritance taxes on tax planning and avoidance in general as well as inter vivos transfers in particular. Tax planning, avoidance and evasion responses are more pronounced than real responses. Behavioral responses to an inheritance tax are smaller compared to a recurrent net wealth tax. Therefore, policymakers aiming at the minimization of (revenue-reducing) behavioral responses should prefer an inheritance tax over a recurrent net wealth tax. Furthermore, the containment of (illegal) tax avoidance should be a priority for policymakers in order to secure legitimacy of and public support for inheritance taxation, but also to ensure that inheritance taxes are an efficient tool to reduce inequality, considering that avoidance and evasion are highly concentrated among the rich.
Studies, European Parliament, Luxembourg, June 2023, 23 pages, https://doi.org/doi:10.2861/670320
Commissioned by: European Parliament
Study by: Austrian Institute of Economic Research – Hertie School gGmbH – Queen Mary University of London – German Institute for Economic Research
Restrictive monetary policy dampens inflation effectively, but it also raises stress in financial markets. This happens through revaluations of financial assets on banks' balance sheets and through dampened economic activity. Moreover, apart from the positive effect of exiting negative interest rates, banks' net interest margin is generally negatively affected by interest rate hikes. With most of the disinflationary impact of higher interest rates yet to materialise, monetary policy should allow the financial sector to digest the rapid rate hikes of last year by reducing the pace of tightening.
WIFO Research Briefs, 2023, (3), 12 pages
Online since: 22.02.2023 0:00
Auch die Steuern und Abgaben sehen sich großen Herausforderungen der Transformation gegenüber. Sie spielen im Rahmen der Klima- und Umweltpolitik sowohl als Instrument zur Finanzierung öffentlicher Leistungen im Allgemeinen und klima- und umweltpolitischer Aufgaben im Besonderen als auch als Lenkungsinstrument eine wichtige Rolle. Im Verhältnis zur Wirtschaftsleistung ist in Österreich das Aufkommen an Umweltsteuern im engeren Sinne langfristig konstant und liegt anhaltend unter dem EU-Durchschnitt. Dagegen haben die umweltrelevanten Zahlungen an Gemeinden (z. B. Abwasser- oder Müllgebühren) und sonstige Gebietskörperschaften deutlich an Gewicht gewonnen. Mit der Einführung einer CO2-Bepreisung im Jahr 2022 schließt Österreich an die wachsende Gruppe jener Länder auf, die eine CO2-Bepreisung als Instrument der Klimapolitik nutzen. Künftige Reformen sollten auf einen umfassenderen Beitrag des Abgabensystems zur erforderlichen sozio-ökologischen Transformation abzielen, der über die derzeitige Fokussierung auf klimapolitische Zielsetzungen hinausgeht. Insbesondere soll das Abgabensystem im Rahmen eines breiteren Maßnahmen-Mix helfen, den Ressourcenverbrauch (einschließlich der Ressource Boden) einzudämmen, die Biodiversität zu schützen und die Kreislaufwirtschaft zu unterstützen. Dies erfordert auch den stärkeren Einsatz von transformativen Abgaben auf den subnationalen Ebenen.
WIFO Working Papers, 2022, (654), 54 pages
Supported by: Anniversary Fund of the Oesterreichische Nationalbank
Online since: 19.12.2022 0:00
The import competition literature suggests that Chinese industrial policies and technological trends have altered the nature of competition with China so that it does not take place on a level playing field anymore. Empirical evidence about firms' reactions in developed economies to competition with China is inconclusive, however. This paper studies how small, highly internationalised and specialised firms react to the growing penetration of Chinese exporters on their markets. We use a sample of Austrian manufacturing companies to explore the impact of increasing competition on changes in corporate strategy. We propose a novel indicator capturing import competition that highly internationalised companies face. We examine how firms adapt their search strategies related to technological capabilities and markets. While the exposure to Chinese competition has been on average relatively low, its impact on diversification choices has been significant. Companies exposed to growing Chinese competition are more likely to diversify their geographic markets, but less likely to diversify their product portfolio or broaden their competence base. These patterns are also reflected by changes in trade data.
Mehr