A Projection of Public Long-term Care Expenditure and Care Workers Required up to 2050

The number of older people in Austria will increase significantly, both in absolute terms and relative to younger people. This will lead to a decline in the care potential of families and to cost increases in the long-term care (LTC) sector. The expected development of the health status of the elderly will have a somewhat dampening effect. Taking these effects into account, this article estimates the expected demand for LTC and the resulting need for workers up to the year 2050. The number of people receiving LTC allowance will increase by 57 percent between 2021 and 2050, reaching more than 730,000 in 2050. The public costs associated with this development will increase from 2.74 to 9.17 billion € (in real terms, taking into account the annual valorisation of the LTC allowance). The projections of the evolution of public costs for LTC services between 2021 and 2050 show a clear increase in net costs and in the number of people receiving care. While the net cost of all LTC services in 2021 is about 2.71 billion €, it will increase to about 4.22 billion € in 2030 and to 10.7 billion € in 2050 (at 2021 prices; +56 percent in 2030, +294 percent in 2050). These increases in demand will lead to an increase in staffing requirements in the LTC sector. Based on staffing levels in 2021, almost 17,000 additional LTC workers (over 12,000 full-time equivalents) will be needed by 2030 to maintain the current staffing ratio (an average of +1,870 LTC workers per year). By 2050, just under 77,000 additional LTC workers will be needed (or just under 57,000 in full-time equivalents). This does not take into account any necessary expansion due to possible undersupply, which would further increase the need for LTC workers.