Family patterns in Western countries have substantially changed across the 1940 to 1990 birth cohorts. Adults born more recently
enter more often unmarried cohabitations and marry later, if at all. They have children later and fewer of them; births take
place in a non-marital union more often and, due to the declining stability of couple relationships, in more than one partnership.
These changes have led to an increasing diversity in family life courses. In this paper, we present a microsimulation model
of family life trajectories, which models the changing family patterns taking into account the complex interrelationships
between childbearing and partnership processes. The microsimulation model is parameterised to retrospective data for women
born since 1940 in Italy, Great Britain and two Nordic countries (Norway and Sweden), representing three significantly different
cultural and institutional contexts of partnering and child bearing in Europe. Validation of the simulated family life courses
against their real-world equivalents shows that the simulations not only closely replicate observed childbearing and partnership
processes, but also give good predictions when compared to more recent fertility indicators. We conclude that the presented
microsimulation model is suitable for exploring changing family dynamics and outline potential research questions and further
applications.
Keywords:Family life course, fertility, partnerships, microsimulation, Italy, Great Britain, Norway, Sweden
Research group:Labour Economics, Income and Social Security