Majority of Economic Outlooks Remain Sceptical

29.11.2022

Results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest (Business Cycle Survey) of November 2022

The results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest (Business Cycle Survey) show a slight improvement in economic assessments in November. At 4.0 points (seasonally adjusted), the WIFO Business Climate Index was 1.1 points above the value of the previous month (2.9 points). While the situation indicators continue to show an average economic environment despite small declines, the majority of business expectations continue to signal a sceptical economic outlook despite index increases in many sectors. Business uncertainty remains high. Despite an increase, companies' credit demand remained below average in November. Companies assess the willingness of banks to lend much more restrictively than in previous years.

The current situation index lost 0.4 points in November but remained positive at 7.4 points. In the manufacturing sector, which is particularly sensitive to economic developments, the situation index lost 2.0 points compared to the previous month and remained just in positive territory at 3.8 points. In the construction industry, the situation index lost 5.7 points, but remained well above the zero line at 17.9 points. In the service sectors, the index gained 1.1 points compared to the previous month and stood above the zero line with a value of 10.1 points. In the retail sector, the situation index rose by 2.1 points, but remained in the range of sceptical economic assessments at –6.1 points.

The index of business expectations rose in November (+2.6 points), but at 0.5 points was only just above the zero line separating negative from positive economic expectations. In the retail sector, the expectations index remained almost unchanged (+0.1 points) and was still clearly in negative territory at –19.9 points. In the service sectors the expectations index rose by 3.8 points and was again above the zero line at 2.6 points. In the construction industry, on the other hand, the expectations index fell by 0.9 points, but remained at an optimistic 35.0 points. This high value is due to the continuing high expectations for construction prices. The business situation expectations in the construction industry have already been in negative territory since May. In the manufacturing sector, which was particularly affected by the rise in energy prices, the expectations index rose slightly (+2.4 points). However, at –7.6 points, it was still noticeably in the pessimistic range.

  

Publications

Konjunkturausblicke bleiben mehrheitlich skeptisch. Ergebnisse des WIFO-Konjunkturtests vom November 2022 (Majority of Economic Outlooks Remain Sceptical. Results of the WIFO-Konjunkturtest (Business Cycle Survey) of November 2022)
WIFO Business Cycle Survey, 2022, (11), 14 pages
Commissioned by: European Commission
Online since: 29.11.2022 14:00
Die Ergebnisse des WIFO-Konjunkturtests zeigen im November eine leichte Verbesserung der Konjunkturbeurteilungen. Der WIFO-Konjunkturklimaindex notierte mit 4,0 Punkten (saisonbereinigt) 1,1 Punkte über dem Wert des Vormonats (2,9 Punkte). Während die Lageindikatoren trotz kleiner Rückgänge weiterhin ein durchschnittliches Konjunkturumfeld zeichnen, signalisieren die unternehmerischen Erwartungen trotz Indexsteigerungen in vielen Branchen weiterhin mehrheitlich skeptische Konjunkturausblicke. Die unternehmerische Unsicherheit ist weiterhin hoch. Die Kreditnachfrage der Unternehmen blieb im November trotz Anstieg unterdurchschnittlich. Die Unternehmen schätzen die Bereitschaft der Banken zur Kreditvergabe deutlich restriktiver ein als in den vergangenen Jahren.
Please contact

Dr. Werner Hölzl

Research groups: Industrial Economics, Innovation and International Competition
© Ahmed Elqsas/behance.net
© Ahmed Elqsas/behance.net