To mitigate our economies' reliance on fossil fuels, bio-based alternatives to common materials are increasingly proposed.
Though usually looking (much) more environmentally friendly, the up-stream consequences of such alternatives are often not
well analysed; specifically, the (net) reduction in oil consumption, e.g., is often much less than expected (as, for example,
in the rather ill-fated experiment with bio-fuels for transport). This paper takes as its starting point the potential replacement
of crude oil by bio-based feedstock in the production of polymers ("plastics"). Employing a cascade of specialised models,
from the production technology of the chemical industry, via a global agricultural model, to a global Input-Output model,
we simulate the "technological rebound" as significant, but not dramatic.
JEL-Codes:O33, C67, O13
Keywords:bio-based economy, rebound, Input Output
Research group:Structural Change and Regional Development – Environment, Agriculture and Energy